Hamas Rockets Keep Raining Down
Israeli Forces Have Not Entered Population Centres Where Many Missiles Are Hidden, Security Expert Says

by Patrick Martin
Globe and Mail
January 9, 2009

http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/635/hamas-rockets-keep-raining-down

Thirteen days of bombardment, six days of an Israeli ground assault, and still Hamas, or its cronies, are firing rockets out of Gaza. There are fewer of them to be sure: 20 rockets fired on Israel yesterday; 25 the day before. But they're still coming and Israelis still are running for cover.

Just how does Hamas do it?

"They had a lot of rockets hidden away," says Mark Heller, principal research associate of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

"And the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] still hasn't gone into the heavily populated areas where they hid them," Mr. Heller said.

Israel's bombing runs and artillery fire have stayed away from most built-up areas. They focused mostly on security buildings, government structures, the supply tunnels to Egypt and the homes of known Hamas and other militant figures. In addition, they hit known firing areas, such as abandoned Israeli settlements and the outskirts of some of the villages and towns.

When Israeli ground troops and armoured vehicles entered the area last weekend, they flooded the open spaces in Gaza, taking the main highway and the former industrial zone just inside the Erez crossing, and they beat a path to the central former Israeli settlement of Netzarim, south of Gaza City, dividing the Gaza Strip into two more manageable parts.

Their drive from the border area in the north and northeast pushed back those militants who had used the area to fire their short-range, homemade Qassam rockets on towns such as Sderot and several smaller communities nearby. The inability of the Qassams to reach these targets from deeper inside Gaza is a big reason for the drop in the number of rockets fired each day.

But the foreign-made (Chinese probably) Grad type of Katyusha rocket can still reach major targets inside Israel even when launched from deep inside the biggest communities in Gaza. Two such rockets hit open areas in Beersheva yesterday; two others landed near Ashkelon.

The Israeli forces have succeeded in reducing the supply of rockets, but they haven't reached the inland missiles.

"They have yet to go into the densely populated areas," Mr. Heller said. "They're hoping to persuade Hamas to agree to a ceasefire without doing this."

And they aren't about to enter these areas without a lot of help. The Israeli invasion may have made a lot of noise, but it hasn't involved that many troops.

"They've only got two brigades in there," Mr. Heller said, "... not that many troops at all."

As the rockets continue to rain down, and as Hamas continues to rule out a ceasefire, the Israeli military leadership may soon have to make a choice. Unless a ceasefire agreement is reached, the IDF must decide either to send its troops deeper into those Gaza cities, which will involve calling up thousands more reserves and the considerable loss of life, or decide to declare victory and withdraw.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party, has argued that it would be better to let Hamas know that if they fire any rockets, they will be hit hard. Such a tension, she says, is better than an ineffective truce.

Defence Minister and Labour Party Leader Ehud Barak, as well as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, are said to want to give diplomacy a chance to find a solution, and they want to keep up the military assault to put further pressure on Hamas to agree.

No one believes that military force alone can end the firing of the rockets.

The next few days will reveal which way Israel will proceed and which means will work.

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