The newly dubbed 12-day war between Israel and Iran was extraordinary, but a ceasefire is not victory. Victory is much harder. It was not achieved in Israel’s War of Independence in 1948, the Six-Day War in 1967 or the Yom Kippur War in 1973. It wasn’t achieved in Lebanon, Gaza, or in Judea and Samaria; or by the United States in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. Victory is when your enemy is not only unable to fight you now but agrees in a verifiable way that it will not fight you in the future. World War II, the Camp David Accords, the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel, and most recently, the Abraham Accords, were victories.
All the great work done by the United States to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability (and it was GREAT work, HUUUUUGGGGGE, if you will) and all of the great work done by Israel to eliminate the missiles, launchers, drone capabilities and much more, didn’t solve the actual Iranian people problem: regime change. As long as the mullahs—with their multigenerational death wish and willingness to torture and murder their own people in pursuit of some phantasmagorical end—remain in power, this is an interregnum only.
Now, to be clear, that is not an American problem to solve, and it is not an Israeli problem to solve. Neither country will or should put “boots on the ground.” Neither will or should tell the Iranian people who should govern them. Neither will or should eliminate the ayatollah and his minions (not to be confused with minyans).
What Israel did over the past week, however, despite aggravating U.S. President Donald Trump on the issue of timing, was open the door as wide as it could for the Iranian people to take their lives into their own hands.
Israel blew up parts of Tehran’s Evin Prison. France24 wrote:
(The strike) damaged a prosecutor’s office and two courts within Evin … well-known for prosecuting protesters and dissidents, and the prison is notorious for imprisoning thousands of Iranians, including protesters from the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, university students, women activists, opposition figures and artists.
Israel also, according to the usually reliable reporter Mossad: Satirical and Awesome (don’t let the name fool you, this is a serious and generally correct site), destroyed:
- The Thar-Allah Headquarters, the main headquarters reporting to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.
- The Sayyed al-Shuhada Corps, which reported to the IRGC on “homeland defense,” including the suppression of “internal threats.” (i.e., women with their hair exposed and people who want to listen to music on the radio).
- The Internal Security Command of the Internal Security Forces
- Basiji Headquarters, a key IRGC base responsible for enforcing Islamic codes and reporting civilian violations to the authorities.
- The “Alborz Corps,” responsible for protecting several cities in the Tehran Province against various threats.
- The Intelligence and Security Police of the Internal Security Forces, part of the IRGC’s military forces.
The ugly tools of repression were attacked by Israel. No one can expect more than that—and if you do, then don’t.
Why not?
Former President George W. Bush tried to bring “democracy” to Iraq.
Former President Barack Obama bombed Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, Philippines, Mali and Niger with varying degrees of congressional agreement. The Libya bombings precipitated a civil war that continues to this day. Coups and attempted coups across Somalia, Mali and Niger resulted in the United States and France being ousted from the latter two; the United States still trains troops in Somalia, the hellhole of Blackhawk Down.
Not one had a regime change that created a democracy.
Israel’s experiences with both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas in Judea and Samaria, and with Hamas in Gaza, were an attempt to provide assets to ruling cadres in hopes that they would decide (as the Abraham Accords countries did in 2020) that joining the modern world and providing for the people was better than killing Jews. It didn’t work.
Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of the co-founder of Hamas—and now an American citizen, supporter of Israel and vocal speaker—addressed the question of whether and how regime change is best done:
Changing the regime in Tehran is a necessity but it has to happen from within. If 90 million people fail to overthrow a dying criminal like the ayatollah, then they deserve to stay under his boot. Take to the streets and demand new transparent elections before ayatollah wakes up from his shock. Wither ayatollah gets assassinated or die of unknown causes the Iranian people should not wait for this to happen. Overthrow him and show the world your greatness.
It is hard to agree with him that if the Iranian people can’t toss out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the age of 86, then they “deserve” to stay “under his boot.” But the meaning is clear. They have to do it; they have to make their way.
Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah, agreed:
Only we, the Iranian people, can end it. To the military—as you’re given orders to lash out at the people—stand down. This is your final chance. You are being watched.
It is hard to believe that this is the people’s “final chance.” But Israel and the United States have done a remarkable job for all of civilization.
Next up.
