The war with Iran is closing multiple fronts for Israel, but the strategic aftershocks — from a resurgent Sunni Islamist movement to a fracturing Jordan — may reshape the Middle East for decades. The current conflict is not an isolated campaign against Tehran but the catalyst for a broader regional realignment, with “the haunting black cloud over the West” finally lifting, Dr. David Wurmser told a Jewish Policy Center webinar on March 5, 2026.
Wurmser, a senior analyst for Middle East Affairs at the Center for Security Policy and a former senior advisor at the White House and State Department, began with Lebanon, where Hezbollah had provoked Israel by launching missiles — what he called submitting “the winning entry for this year’s Darwin Awards.” Hezbollah is not its own front, he argued, but an extension of the broader Iranian war, and Israel intends to see the fight through to the end. Northern Israeli towns remain largely depopulated, and every Israeli knows the war was unfinished.
The Sunni Threat After Iran
While the Iranian regime is being brought down, a dangerous Sunni Islamist bloc is taking shape. The new government in Damascus represents the first time Arab Islamic forces have controlled that city in a thousand years — evoking the Umayyad Caliphate of 1,300 years ago and “creating a civilizational confidence that the Turks are buying into.” Wurmser identified a strategic triad of Turkey under Erdogan, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood as the animating force, one that also maintains ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through the Belt and Road initiative.
Qatar is trying to reposition itself after refusing US airspace and attempting to sabotage wartime diplomacy. Having chosen the losing side, the Qataris now want to claim credit for an American victory. Meanwhile, Tehran is deliberately stoking Sunni-Shiite tensions to frighten its own population into rallying behind the regime — a desperate strategy Wurmser said would likely fail.
Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq
Egypt is navigating between rival camps, and the long-term trajectory is troubling. President al-Sisi recognizes that the military rank and file are sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood, and Cairo has been drifting toward Turkey on issues from the Horn of Africa to North Africa. Egypt’s peace with Israel, Wurmser argued, has always been anchored to its desire to be part of the American alliance — a commitment that eroded under Presidents Obama and Biden but that President Trump has helped shore up by reasserting American leadership.
Jordan faces an even more immediate danger. Forces aligned with the Damascus government and the Muslim Brotherhood are fracturing the tribal structure that forms the regime’s core, pulling Iraqi tribes away from their traditional Hashemite alignment. Iraq, by contrast, may benefit from Iran’s fall: traditional Shiism could reemerge, Iranian-backed militias are being targeted by US and Israeli operations, and the 20-year Iraqi conundrum — which Wurmser characterized as an Iranian-sponsored insurgency rather than an Iraqi one — may finally see resolution.
Israel’s Post-War Horizon
Drawing a historical parallel to the United States between 1865 and 1890, Wurmser argued that Israel is entering a transformative era. The external wars that defined its first 80 years are winding down, and the country is poised for significant immigration, demographic growth, and “civilizational solidity.” He pointed to an emerging alignment of Israel, India, and Japan — “the League of Rising Ancients” — three ancient, democratic nations that have reconciled tradition with modernity, forming a strategic arc that boxes in Chinese and Turkish ambitions from the south.
The 47-year Iranian threat is nearing its end, he concluded, calling the coming resolution “almost as big as the Berlin Wall” and a major blow to China. Israel and the United States are being handed a circumstance of immense positive potential — if they are prepared to seize it.
Written with AI assistance and may contain errors.
