China is not a passive bystander in the war against Iran—it is a “co-belligerent” whose intelligence sharing, satellite guidance, and radar technicians are directly contributing to the deaths of Americans, Israelis, and Gulf Arab nationals. That was the blunt assessment of Guermantes Lailari, a retired U.S. Air Force foreign area officer and senior non-resident fellow of the Jewish Policy Center in Taiwan, who told a JPC webinar on March 31 that Washington must confront Beijing over support that goes far beyond arms sales. Lailari, who was selected as a Taiwan fellow by Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2022 and has written for the JPC’s inFOCUS Quarterly on Chinese support for the Houthis and Hamas, argued that the scale of Chinese involvement amounts to participation in the conflict.
Beijing’s Fingerprints in Iran
Lailari traced China’s involvement to a 25-year, $400 billion agreement signed with Tehran around 2021–2022 covering oil, gas, and military development—“not just weapon systems, but training, intelligence, the full spectrum.” He noted that China sold Iran radar systems supposedly capable of detecting stealth aircraft, though Israeli and American strikes destroyed them. At least three Chinese radar technicians were reportedly killed, and broader estimates suggest up to 300 Chinese nationals died across Iran while supporting defense and internal-security infrastructure. China’s surveillance technology, Lailari added, underpins the regime’s domestic repression, including a January crackdown in which “up to 30,000 civilians, unarmed protesters, were killed.”
The most consequential support, he argued, involves the Beidou satellite system. Its 500 satellites provide targeting intelligence and in-flight guidance corrections for Iranian missiles—capability Tehran does not possess on its own. “When those missiles hit targets, it’s because China has provided that information,” Lailari said. The same intelligence pipeline feeds the Houthis, enabling attacks on commercial shipping and on Israel. He stressed that in the Iran conflict, unlike Ukraine, Chinese assistance is “killing Americans,” making the situation “more severe.”
Why China and Russia Abstained at the UN
Lailari addressed the surprise abstention by Beijing and Moscow on UN Security Council Resolution 2817, supported by roughly 135 nations. The Gulf states, he observed, were the driving force, and China could not afford to antagonize them: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait alone supply nearly 25 percent of China’s crude oil imports, and Gulf-China trade reached $257 billion in 2024. By abstaining rather than vetoing, Beijing could “continue supporting Iran without any kind of repercussions” while signaling disapproval of the war on its own propaganda terms.
Taiwan’s Resolve and the Porcupine Strategy
Turning to the Indo-Pacific, Lailari dismissed fears of an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Xi Jinping has fired more than 100 generals in recent years, leaving the Central Military Commission with only two members—himself and one anti-corruption investigator. “Things aren’t looking good if you’re trying to get ready for an invasion,” he observed. Chinese military equipment has also performed poorly in recent engagements in Venezuela, the India-Pakistan fighting, and Iran.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has committed $20 billion in new weapons purchases—equivalent to its entire defense budget—pushing defense spending above 3.2 percent of GDP, with another $14 billion reportedly in the pipeline. The U.S. military is training Taiwanese forces under the National Defense Authorization Act, helping them adopt a “porcupine strategy” that makes the island “so difficult to swallow that it will choke China.” Lailari compared the effort to lethal training Washington provided Ukraine beginning in 2017.
Beijing, he noted, wages a parallel information campaign pushing “American skepticism”—portraying Washington as an unreliable partner—and “Taiwan skepticism,” claiming the island lacks the will to fight. Polling data tells a different story: 60 to 70 percent of Taiwanese say they are willing to defend their country, and the overwhelming majority identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
Food, Not Just Oil
Lailari identified food as China’s most critical vulnerability. “They can’t feed themselves no matter how much land they farm,” he said, adding that while China holds roughly 120 days of oil reserves, “if you really want to hurt China, you start talking about food embargoes.” He also called for reciprocal bans on Chinese purchases of American farmland, noting that Beijing permits no foreign land ownership.
Looking ahead to a Trump-Xi summit expected in mid-May, Lailari predicted the agenda would extend well beyond trade to include Chinese presence in the Western Hemisphere, the Panama Canal, and the war in Iran. He cautioned that China is tripling its nuclear arsenal and that Taiwan could become “the flashpoint” for a nuclear confrontation—but expressed cautious optimism that Xi recognizes President Trump’s assertiveness. “Pushing him might get a response you don’t appreciate,” Lailari said, “because it might be very painful.”
