The votes cast in Israel’s elections on October 27 have been counted. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition’s has secured enough Knesset seats to form a government.
The most impactful question now revolves around an investigation begun by Israel’s internal security services, the Shin Bet and the Israeli police. There is mounting evidence including eyewitness accounts of a campaign to buy Arab votes for the Muslim Brotherhood-supported Ra’am Party. Evidence of a votes-for-gas-cards campaign has been presented to the Shin Bet, and investigators are looking into it. Gas cards, valued at 100 Israeli shekels (approximately $32) and allegedly funded by Qatar, may have been distributed in very large numbers to “encourage” Arab citizens of Israel to vote. If the allegations are true and illegal activities played a role in the largest Arab voter turnout in Israeli history, the Shin Bet would be well-advised to complete the investigation rapidly and present the results to Israel’s election commission. Otherwise, the incoming Knesset could seat as many as 19 or 20 Arab MKs.
The election commission must authorize the election results on Monday, November 2.
One might well wonder how much Israel’s election commission cares about election fraud. Is it a Chicago-style commission which ignores hundreds of dead voters on the voter rolls? Or is it a credible, no-nonsense commission? If past is precedent, the latter seems more likely. In 2020, the religious Shas Party was fined for distributing sabbath candles and anti-COVID spiritual amulets to voters in violation of strict election propaganda laws. Shas was deemed to have exerted undue influence over voters..
Any distribution of gas cards and/or cash cards to voters in order to buy votes should similarly be prosecuted, and the validity of votes cast for payments should be called into question speedily. The Shin Bet has until late Sunday/early Monday to complete the investigation.
Who is behind the gas and cash cards? Early signs point to Qatar, which has no diplomatic relations with Israel and which has proven its willingness to interfere in democratic institutes in other locations as well, including the United States, where Qatar’s influence game has extended over $100B in “largesse” to American universities.
The Arab-Israeli bloc may have won 19 Knesset seats — unless votes for those seats were purchased. If they were purchased by Israel’s adversaries in Qatar, Israel’s election commission, the Shin Bet, and other Israeli parties will have to move fast. Indeed, if Qatar’s involvement proves out, it may end up being the the forcing factor that leads Israeli opposition parties helmed by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennet to rethink their opposition and to join Netanyahu — putting him over the 61 seat threshold needed to form a “unity” government.
Watch this space.
