Editor’s Note: This program was recorded in advance of the end of Passover. We wish you a peaceful and happy holiday, and plan to resume live programming next week.
The United States faces “an unprecedented number of opportunities to do good” across Latin America, with more governments disposed to cooperate with Washington than at any time in recent memory—but only if the U.S. helps its partners succeed economically and institutionally, or risks watching them swing back to the left. So argued Dr. Evan Ellis, Latin America research professor and holder of the General Douglas MacArthur research chair at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, during a Jewish Policy Center webinar on April 6.
Ellis, who previously served on the Secretary of State’s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean, cautioned that the region’s pro-American tilt is driven by each country’s domestic needs—crime, corruption, economic failure—rather than by U.S. outreach. From Bukele in El Salvador to Kast in Chile to Milei in Argentina, voters rejected leftist incumbents for their own reasons. “We have to help our partners win,” Ellis stressed, or the familiar cycle of disillusionment will “open the door for populist candidates to come back for another shift back to the left.”
Venezuela and Cuba: Economic Leverage, Slow Political Reform
In Venezuela, Ellis said, the Trump administration made a strategic calculation that forcing a democratic transition carried too much near-term risk, choosing instead to work with the Chavista leadership under Delcy Rodríguez. The result has been a reopening of the petroleum and mining sectors to U.S. companies, but political reform has been “much, much more slowly.” Dissidents remain imprisoned, notorious detention facilities have only partly been closed, and criminal organizations continue to operate in mining regions. Ellis described it as a “delicate moment” in which the regime is “handing over the money” while doing “a bit of a slow roll in terms of political reforms.”
Cuba presents a different challenge. The cutoff of oil supplies has shut down roughly 95 percent of the island’s electricity grid, paralyzing the economy. Negotiations are now underway with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Ellis noted, because current leader Miguel Díaz-Canel “does not have the legitimacy to essentially cut a deal that would remove the Communist Party from power.” Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has moved to send oil to Cuba—a step Ellis suggested Washington may quietly tolerate.
Mexico: Cartels, Diplomacy, and a “Masterful” Balancing Act
Ellis praised Sheinbaum as “masterful” in navigating relations with Washington, cooperating on extraditions, border security, and cartel operations while preserving political space with her Morena base. The killing of El Mencho, head of the Jalisco Nueva Generación cartel, triggered violence in 20 states and some 252 protest events, but Ellis noted the follow-on instability has been less severe than feared. On tourism, he advised caution in high-violence areas like Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco but said destinations such as Cancún and Mexico City remain “relatively safe.”
Panama: A Victory on Ports, but Chinese Influence Persists
The removal of Hong Kong–based CK Hutchison from two canal-area port operations represented a tangible success, Ellis said, but the broader picture is more complicated. Chinese shipping giant COSCO remains the canal’s largest user, China Harbour continues construction projects inside the canal zone, and over 200 Chinese companies operate warehousing and distribution throughout Panama. A BlackRock-backed acquisition of CK Hutchison’s holdings collapsed after Beijing threatened antitrust action and demanded a 20 percent stake for COSCO, which Ellis said “would have been 10 times worse than having Hutchison in.” Panamanian authorities found an alternative path, voiding the original lease on grounds of impropriety and installing Mediterranean Shipping Company as an interim operator.
Reasons for Optimism
Ellis closed on a hopeful note, pointing to three factors: Washington’s growing recognition of the region’s strategic importance; an “unprecedented level of expertise” at the State Department, including Deputy Secretary Chris Landau, who grew up in Chile and Colombia and speaks fluent Guaraní; and an unusual alignment of cooperative governments from Bolivia to the Caribbean. “We’ve maybe never had so many open doors with so many smart people who are sensitive to the value of the region,” he concluded, while cautioning that “that doesn’t take away our obligation to get it right and formulate good policy.”
