Russia: Playing a Losing Hand like a Winner
by Shoshana Bryen
May 21, 2013 | American Thinker
Russia has the worst of red lines: like King Cnut, Putin is trying to stop the tide of Sunni-Shiite fighting within the borders of Syria, where he plans to control the outcome. In 1982, Hafez Assad killed perhaps 40,000 Syrians in Hama in an attempt to bury the Muslim Brotherhood. But the Brotherhood emerged like cicadas 30 years later. How many remain in Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ossetia, waiting for an opportunity to rise?
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More Than a Matter of Words
by Matthew RJ Brodsky
May 13, 2013 | The Times of Israel
The recent Israeli airstrikes outside of Damascus have refocused the United States' attention on the Syrian civil war. In the wake of the attacks, the phrases – "red line," "game-changer," and "enormous consequences" – have permeated the lexicon of the conflict, with each resonating differently in Washington and Jerusalem. "I've stated repeatedly, publicly that red line, and that is we're not going to accept Iran having a nuclear weapon," President Obama said in a September 2012 interview with Telemundo. "I've been very clear about my position." But the administration has long suffered from mixed messaging on Iran; Syria is merely the latest example. It augurs poorly for security guarantees Team Obama offers Israel at a time when Israel requires a steadfast ally in America.
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Mistaking Cause and Effect in Syria
by Shoshana Bryen
May 10, 2013 | American Thinker
Russia's President Vladimir Putin called Prime Minister Netanyahu during Mr. Netanyahu's visit to China, surely a diplomatic oddity. Â (Chinese Premier Li Kegiang answers the hotline in Beijing and says, "Oh, sure. Hey, Bibi, it's for you.") Â President Obama called him there as well, making Netanyahu appear to be the most important man in the world at the moment. Both conversations were reportedly about Syria and what appears to have been Israel's demonstration of the utility of red lines and the inutility of Syria's Russian air defenses.
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Israel's Game-Changer with Hezbollah
by Matthew RJ Brodsky
May 8, 2013 | The Washington Times
Israel's recent airstrikes in Syria reflect its understanding of the new reality in the Middle East. For more than a decade, Israel watched as massive arms shipments passed from Iran and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their complaints went unheeded by the international community — and the unstated rules were that Israel could not launch a pre-emptive strike despite the mountain of evidence it had gathered. Israel's actions in Syria are not just about preventing the transfer of game-changing weapons — they are about changing the rules of the game in how it engages with Hezbollah and Syria. Moreover, the strikes represent an eye toward a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program in which Tehran may look to use Hezbollah as a tool in its arsenal.
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The Fourth Great War
by Shoshana Bryen
May 6, 2013 | Gatestone Institute
The administration's policy on Syria has been a series of visceral reactions to graphic events and horrific casualties, offset by a gigantic distaste for confrontation. Without a definition of America's strategic interests, such as a defeat for both Iran and the Sunni jihadists, the chance remains that America might be dragged into another front in the Fourth Great War. A war in which neither side is our friend.
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Never Mind that Red Line in Syria
by Matthew RJ Brodsky
May 2, 2013 | Rare
At first blush, it appeared that the Obama administration finally agreed with the intelligence assessments of its allies—Britain, France, and Israel—namely, that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons against the opposition. But no sooner had the intelligence letter been delivered did the administration begin walking away from its own assessment. The President is now laying the groundwork to remain on the sideline, ensuring that he will never have the kind of definitive proof he claims to require by setting the bar so high it will never be reached. Obama's waffling has made further escalation of the conflict a near certainty. The real problem is the lack of a coherent policy in Syria now—over two years into the Syrian civil war. Absent a clear policy, no clear strategy to end the conflict has emerged, and the tactics employed have been dilatory and procedural.
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