Jewish Policy Center Senior Director Shoshana Bryen hosted Professor Mark Meirowitz, a foreign policy and Turkey expert from SUNY Maritime College, for a deep dive into Ankara’s growing regional role, its involvement in Syria’s evolution, and its increasingly fraught relationship with Israel. With characteristic clarity and urgency, Prof. Meirowitz broke down the labyrinth of regional alliances and rivalries, calling the situation “literally mind-boggling” and comparing Syria to a “petri dish for chaos.”
HTS, Al-Shara, and the Shake-up in Syria
The ousting of Bashar Assad by the jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Shara (also known as al-Jolani), marks a significant shift in Syria’s power structure—and possibly the region’s. Once associated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, al-Jolani now wears suits and promotes a veneer of moderation. “Maybe the Turks provided him with some of these outfits,” Meirowitz quipped, questioning the authenticity of his transformation.
Al-Jolani was “boosted by” Turkish support, Meirowitz explained, calling him a Turkish client rather than an independent actor. HTS’s limited control—bolstered by foreign fighters like Uyghurs—has led to violent, sectarian repression, particularly against Alawites, Druze, Christians, and Kurds. “We’re with al-Shara, and a lot of people are depending on him,” Meirowitz said ominously.
Turkey’s Interests: Stabilizing Syria to Serve Domestic Needs
Turkey’s involvement, Meirowitz stressed, is strategic. With over 3 million Syrian refugees inside its borders, Ankara is pressuring Damascus to stabilize and repatriate them. “The Turks want them back to Syria,” he said, noting the domestic strain and political sensitivity of the refugee crisis.
Turkey has walked a fine line—signing infrastructure and defense agreements with HTS-controlled Syria while avoiding giving it full military autonomy. “Turkey’s position is that Al-Shara is the go-to person… Let al-Shara unify the country,” Meirowitz explained. But internal Kurdish dynamics—particularly involving PKK, now in peace talks with Erdogan’s government—make full alignment with HTS and Syrian Kurds tenuous.
Will Turkey’s NATO Membership Complicate It All?
One of the more sobering insights from Meirowitz was the hypothetical scenario of Turkey, a NATO power, declaring a no-fly zone over Syria—potentially triggering Article 5 protections if hostilities break out with Israel. “That, to me, is the number one worry… that Israel and Turkey would come to conflict,” he warned.
He emphasized the ongoing “deconfliction meetings” between Israel and Turkey, and Israel and Syria—possibly triangulating with al-Jolani himself. But of all the moving parts, Meirowitz emphasized Turkey’s NATO status remains a critical leverage point: “Let’s be realistic here. If there was a skirmish…Article 5 could be on the table.”
Humanitarian Crises and Jihadi Control: Who is Really Running Syria?
The ongoing massacres of minorities, particularly the Druze in Suweida, raise urgent questions about al-Jolani’s power. “Has he lost control over the jihadis in his own ranks?” Meirowitz pondered, highlighting the grim possibility of Syria spiraling toward becoming a full-blown jihadi state.
“The optics are totally opposed to [the idea of moderation],” he said, noting public executions and forced beard-shaving of Druze men as disturbing parallels to Nazi visual propaganda. “Clearly, this is reprehensible. The United States isn’t going to stand for it,” he added, referring to conditional American Congressional support for lifting sanctions on Syria.
Erdogan’s Domestic Calculations: Kurds, Elections, and Power
Turning inward, Turkey’s President Erdoğan is eyeing another term in 2028. Despite constitutional term limits, he may seek early elections or amendments—with the support of Kurdish parliamentarians. “He’s very popular in Turkey,” Meirowitz said, crediting Erdoğan’s projection of Turkey as a global power broker. “Turkey’s been made into a player on the world stage.”
However, he noted Turkey’s lira is down, inflation is high, and economic growth is tenuous beneath the surface. This tension is compounded by Erdoğan’s crackdown on political opponents, including jailing rivals and invalidating degrees to prevent candidacies.
The Bigger Stage: Turkey in Africa, NATO, and the UN
Turkey’s ambitions extend far beyond Syria. From military expansion in Africa to attempting alignment with BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Ankara aims to diversify its global relevance. “They see themselves as undervalued,” noted Meirowitz. “It’s not aggrandizement—it’s coming from a feeling of being ignored.”
Erdogan’s call that “the world is bigger than five” is a veiled critique of the UN Security Council’s permanent members—hinting at Turkey’s desire for global restructuring that reflects its new stature. “They’re trying to flex their muscles,” as one webinar participant insightfully noted.
Israel, Hamas, and the Limits of Pragmatism
Meirowitz criticized Turkey’s staunch support for Hamas and Hezbollah, calling it “a rabbit hole of disaster.” While support for Palestinian causes earns Erdogan domestic points, it’s constraining Turkey’s global relationships. “If everybody’s a freedom fighter, that doesn’t fly,” he said.
At times, Israel and Turkey have found pragmatic partnership—like continued trade and oil transits during Syria’s civil war—but the anti-Israel posture, sanctions, and rhetoric place those gains at risk. “We need to get together,” Meirowitz relayed from a Turkish businessman. “We like the same things… same food… same values.”
Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism, But Beware the Fault Lines
In his closing remarks, Prof. Meirowitz struck a “guarded optimism” tone for Turkey’s trajectory. “I believe Turkish leadership is going to give further thought to these directions,” he said, hoping Ankara will reconsider its Hamas alliance for more fruitful cooperation with Israel and the West.
Bryen offered sober context: “Israel and Iran were friends once, too—until they weren’t.” As Prof. Meirowitz put it, “Hamas is not a future for Turkey.”
As the region’s political tectonics keep shifting, one question looms: Will Turkey’s pragmatism prevail over ideology—or will ambition lead it down a path of strategic overreach? The answer, as Bryen put it, remains a moving thread.
