Reports coming from Lebanon are, in many ways, encouraging – the Lebanese government, it seems, is done with Hezbollah and the wreckage of a once-beautiful and prosperous country. The question is, can the government carry out the mandate to remove Hezbollah, its weapons and its influence and create peaceful relations with Israel?
Hussain Abdul-Hussain, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, walks us through the disparate threads of Lebanese politics – from the comforting and hopeful to the skeptical, cynical, and despairing.
A Crumbling but Shifting Status Quo
Hussein Abdel-Hussain cautiously celebrated what he called one of the most consequential developments in Lebanon’s modern history: the weakening of Hezbollah following the reported assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and what he described as Israel’s “crushing” of Hezbollah’s operational capabilities. This surprising turn of events has opened what he characterizes as a “window of opportunity” for the Lebanese state to reclaim sovereignty and redefine itself as more neutral and nationally focused.
Although Hezbollah and its Shia political partner Amal initially agreed to a cessation of hostilities in late November 2024, they have since moved the goalposts. Specifically, Hezbollah now demands Israeli withdrawal from strategic hilltops before it will even consider discussions on disarmament, thus reverting back to old patterns of negotiation delay and defiance—strategies previously employed by figures like Yasser Arafat.
Legal and Political Breakthroughs
Despite Hezbollah’s resistance, the Lebanese government has achieved a historic milestone. For the first time since 1969, the Cabinet passed a resolution asserting that only state institutions are authorized to bear arms inside Lebanon. This directly challenges Hezbollah’s decades-long extralegal military presence. Even more remarkably, the decision was made with Hezbollah-affiliated ministers still in the temporary caretaker government, giving the resolution additional political weight.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have been officially tasked with drafting a plan to disarm Hezbollah—a move that underscores a shift from rhetorical opposition to potential enforcement. A meeting to review the military’s disarmament plan is set, though the LAF has indicated that a full disarmament could take 15 months, well beyond the end-of-the-year deadline set by the Cabinet.
The Struggle of the Lebanese Armed Forces
The Lebanese military, although increasingly seen as the backbone of national unity and sovereignty, faces severe logistical, operational, and financial challenges. Salaries have plunged to poverty levels due to the economic collapse, and the rank-and-file soldiers struggle with basic needs—including fuel and clean drinking water. Many soldiers hold second jobs to survive, and troop numbers are insufficient to handle complex disarmament tasks.
While the United States once provided $144 million annually to support the LAF, this aid has intermittently lapsed due to political friction and has recently been replaced by funding from Qatar, which raises concerns about foreign influence.
Qatar and Turkey: External Influences and Islamist Ambitions
Abdel-Hussain expressed discomfort with growing Qatari—and increasingly Turkish—influence in Lebanon, particularly within the Sunni community in the north and in Beirut. These nations, he warned, are promoting Islamist factions aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. This power vacuum, created by Saudi Arabia’s retreat from Lebanon since 2017, has allowed pro-Qatar and pro-Turkey candidates to gain municipal influence.
Worse yet, Turkey is replicating strategies previously demonstrated by Iran—investing in loyalist militias and seeking political hegemony in Syria and Lebanon alike. Abdel-Hussain emphasized that Turkey’s intelligence chief-turned-foreign minister Hakan Fidan could become the “new Qassem Soleimani” in terms of aspiring for regional dominance.
The Role of the United States: Mixed Messaging, Diplomatic Fumbles
The conversation took a critical turn when examining America’s diplomacy. Abdel-Hussain strongly criticized US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barak for bypassing Israel while presenting a policy paper outlining the roadmap to disarm Hezbollah. That paper was approved by the Lebanese cabinet and included commitments from Israel—commitments that Israel had never actually seen or endorsed. This misstep wasted valuable diplomatic capital, undermined credibility, and gave Hezbollah a new talking point.
High-level U.S. diplomacy in the region, Abdel-Hussain argued, has become imbalanced and bureaucratically overloaded—with the same officials covering Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon. He emphasized the importance of restoring proper diplomatic structure and cautioning against over-centralized decision-making.
Hezbollah’s Deep Systemic Risk
While there are Shia soldiers in the Lebanese army, there is scant evidence of systemic Hezbollah infiltration in the senior ranks, according to Abdel-Hussain. He cited funerals of Shia Lebanese soldiers killed in ammunition depot incidents potentially connected to Hezbollah, emphasizing that the community—especially its younger members—showed signs of divergence from militant loyalty.
He dismissed the idea that Hezbollah’s weapons are essential for Shia security, explaining that Lebanon’s Shia are one-third of the population and not an embattled minority like the Syrian Alawites. The rationale for armed militancy, he said, is increasingly seen as a cover for political control, not existential protection.
UNIFIL: An Expired Mandate
UNIFIL, the UN force stationed in southern Lebanon since 1978, received sharp criticism. Abdel-Hussain blasted it as ineffective, politically unwieldy, and financially wasteful. He accused the French of prolonging its life to maintain influence and jobs, describing it as a “sacred cow” that enables Hezbollah by acting as a passive buffer while spending over $500 million annually. The recent decision to terminate UNIFIL’s mandate was hailed as long overdue, with a final 16-month extension granted as a political compromise with France.
Iran’s Declining Influence—But Stay Vigilant
While not declaring Iran fully out of the picture, Abdel-Hussain argued that its effectiveness is waning. Much of the infrastructure and political capital Iran built in Lebanon and Syria through Hezbollah and the Assad regime is significantly diminished. However, vigilance is required, lest Hezbollah regroups or Iran seeks to finance a resurgence. Currently, he sees Iran’s threat limited mostly to missile capabilities from within its borders or via Yemeni Houthis.
France: Their Influence Viewed as Destructive
Hussein Abdel-Hussain sharply criticized French involvement in Lebanon, alleging that it has become a source of obstruction and incoherence. The French approach, he argued, is economically motivated, opportunistic, and inconsistent with the best interests of the Lebanese people or with stability in the region.
The Final Question: Can Lebanon Become Unitary and Neutral Again?
Wrapping up on a cautiously optimistic note, Abdel-Hussain argued that history provides the answer: from 1943 to 1975, Lebanon was a neutral, largely self-governed and pluralistic society that emphasized commerce, leisure, and coexistence. The key to its rehabilitation lies in a return to a small, libertarian-minded state that stays out of regional power struggles.
He asserted that, if left alone, the Lebanese people would opt for peace and prosperity. However, foreign intervention—especially from Iran, Turkey, and Qatar—must be firmly resisted, and Hezbollah’s grip must weaken to restore national unity.
Conclusion
There’s no hiding the uphill nature of Lebanon’s path forward, but for the first time in decades, there may exist a genuine foundation for change. If internal unity can hold—and external pressure can be strategically curtailed—following through on disarming Hezbollah could pave the way for constitutional stability and regional reintegration.
Is peace possible? Perhaps not yet—but for Lebanon, neutrality might just be the first great victory.
Summary prepared by a LLM.
