South Yemen has declared its independence.
No. Wait. Actually, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced a referendum expected to lead to independence in two years. STC is a separatist group backed by the United Arab Emirates and fighting in opposition to the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the internationally recognized Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
No. Wait. Actually, the STC warned the group would declare independence “immediately” if there was no dialogue or if southern Yemen again came under attack.
No. Wait. The Saudis bombed a shipment of Emirati military equipment unloaded at Yemen’s port city of Mukalla, captured all military sites in the province held by the STC, and restored them to the PLC. The PLC said it asked Saudi Arabia to host talks with separatists. The STC said it welcomed the offer.
No talks yet.
While we’re watching the earthquakes in Venezuela and Iran, the fighting and talking in Yemen might seem a small diversion. But it is not.
Fighting in Yemen’s southern provinces ignores the obvious threat of Houthi attacks coming from the part of Yemen not occupied by either the STC or the PLC, but rather running itself on Iranian arms and money. The chaos in Iran makes this an important time for the Saudis and UAE, both attacked by Houthis/Iran, to cooperate on the primary threat to their interests for several reasons:
- Two Gulf Cooperation Council countries bombing each other’s assets in a hair-trigger part of the world is nerve-racking for everyone.
- Good relations among the Gulf States are an essential component of the Abraham Accords. Israel can’t afford a war between a partner and a hoped-for partner.
- As Iran shakes and hopefully falls, regional states will have work to do keeping the region safe and calm.
- The only permanent U.S. base in Africa is in Djibouti, about 18 miles across the Red Sea from the Houthis. The United States has strong interests in the Red Sea, including keeping it open for shipping up to and through the Suez Canal.
Yemen matters, and our allies aren’t helping. The UAE’s multilateral military and diplomatic moves, particularly to the West of the Arabian Peninsula, angered Saudi Arabia, which prefers that the Emirates stay in the Persian Gulf. Saudi social-media accounts are reported to have depicted their Air Force and Muslim Brotherhood allies beating their UAE rivals in Yemen and “crushing the Israeli plan under the feet of the hawks of the island.”
The machinations of both cannot be seen outside of the emerging interest in Somaliland. On the surface, Israel’s announcement of formal diplomatic relations with Somaliland has upset a number of countries. But most of them had been working with it all along, due to its location just south of USAFRICACOM in Djibouti and opposite Yemen. The UAE, for one, has deep economic and security ties with Somaliland for years, as has the United States. Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia, the UAE, Taiwan and India are reportedly among those now set for formal recognition.
Israel is pleased by this turn of events. It has long had good trade and aid programs with several African countries. Still, now, it has its first potential defensive position outside the ring of Iranian- and Muslim Brotherhood-supported countries on its borders. It is a way to strike at or retaliate against Houthi attacks on Israel, and protect Israel’s burgeoning trade with the Gulf States and India, which travels the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden/Indian Ocean route. This is forward protection.
However, coupled with UAE backing for a breakaway Yemeni government on the other side of the Gulf, Israel’s position could make the Saudis—most of whose oil travels that route—feel blocked on both sides at the narrowest point.
And, in fact, it would be. And they don’t like it.
According to The Jerusalem Post, growing Israel-UAE relations are pushing the Saudis to move away from their Western-oriented neighbors and closer to Turkey and Qatar. Turkey’s newspaper, Daily Sabah, accuses Israel of poking at a hornet’s nest in Africa. The Palestinian-oriented Middle East Monitor agrees. “Israel is behind a secret pact with the United Arab Emirates to destroy Saudi Arabia’s role as the Gulf’s regional powerbroker.”
Unlikely.
Middle East analyst Hussain Abdul-Hussain [@hahussain] posted the positive view:
Lemme make this easier: Israel has discovered that the Arab and Muslim worlds are not monolithic blocs, that it has like-minded friends who wish to let go of historic animosity and meaningless real estate fights, and engage in genuine normalization and economic partnership. Oct. 7 accelerated the split in the Arab and Muslim world. Saudi Arabia has now come out against peace with Israel, but the Jewish state has gained so many new friends in the meantime.
The less positive view is that the Middle East is shaking. Iran may be falling, but even if it survives in its brutal form, its proxies in the region have lost their source of funding and arms. But for many governments and media, Israel is still the source of all their problems, and they will be quick to undermine the Jewish state.
Yemen and Somaliland are reminders that small tremors can cause enormous damage.
