Editor’s Note: We generally do not parse internal Israeli politics, but the discussion of the parameters of the possible/impending/promoted hostage deal are important enough that we are using an Israeli source to bring you this information. Reprinted from Inside Israel Intel on X.
The situation in Gaza has once again proven a hard truth that Israel has long understood. Military pressure is the only reliable language Hamas responds to. For nearly two years of negotiations, Hamas stalled, manipulated, and withdrew whenever it sensed Israeli desperation. Yet the moment the IDF prepared to capture Gaza City, Hamas suddenly announced that it would accept a hostage release proposal. The timing is not coincidental. It is the clearest evidence yet that force, and the credible threat of greater force, brings terrorists to the table in a way pleas and concessions never will.
According to reports, the Arab-brokered proposal accepted by Hamas includes a 60-day truce, the phased release of ten hostages alive and the remains of eighteen others, and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The deal is backed by Washington and facilitated by Cairo and Doha. Hamas’ sudden flexibility came only after the “famine” campaign collapsed as an effective pressure tactic and Israeli forces prepared to storm the last urban stronghold under Hamas control. The very fact that Hamas blinked at this moment, when its survival is at stake, demonstrates that Israel’s hard line works.
Contrary to the distorted narrative presented by much of the Western media, the Israeli public is not speaking with one voice. Polling shows the public is deeply divided. Some Israelis want any deal that brings hostages home immediately. Others insist that only a full release of all hostages can justify a ceasefire. Still others argue that the military campaign must continue until Hamas is eliminated as a fighting force. The West often portrays Israel as unified behind one policy or another, but the reality is far more complicated. Israelis know the stakes. They know that compromise with terrorists comes at a devastating price, and that military gains should not be squandered in exchange for partial and temporary relief.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now faces an internal political dilemma. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has declared that agreeing to a partial deal would be “absurdly foolish” and that Israel should accept nothing short of complete capitulation by Hamas. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has warned Netanyahu that he has “no mandate” to agree to a partial deal. Yet the reality is that the Knesset is in recess until October 19, which means the government cannot be dissolved in the interim. Netanyahu therefore retains significant room to maneuver. Even if he signs a deal in the coming weeks, it does not alter the larger issues that could eventually threaten his coalition.
In public, Netanyahu and senior officials have left the door open to negotiation. If Jerusalem were truly uninterested, it could have dismissed Hamas outright, announcing that the time for deals had ended and that the IDF was proceeding to occupy the entire Gaza Strip. Instead, by refusing to slam the door, Netanyahu has preserved space for flexibility. Privately, he has told colleagues that he does not intend to pursue a partial deal and is preparing for the occupation of Gaza. Yet political leaders often posture differently behind closed doors. What matters is not only what Netanyahu says privately, but also what he avoids saying publicly.
Some Israelis, worn down by the agony of captivity, argue that a deal should be signed now, hostages should be returned, and that Israel can always resume the war later. On the surface this might sound reasonable, but it collapses under scrutiny. First, Hamas knows exactly that this is how many in Israel think. They will plan accordingly, militarily, politically, and internationally. They will use a ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and prepare for Israel’s inevitable return. Second, and just as important, the international community will not allow Israel to resume the war after a ceasefire is accepted and adhered to. If Israel halts its advance now, it will face crushing diplomatic pressure to stop permanently, no matter how Hamas behaves. The damage to Israel’s standing would be even worse than the already vicious campaigns it faces today. For that reason, anything short of a complete release of all hostages is strategically inadvisable.
And there is a deeper truth beneath this. Hamas will never voluntarily release all of the hostages. They are the group’s last bargaining chip, the only tool it has left to manipulate Israel and the world. That is why Israel must press on militarily. The IDF’s advance is the only path to freeing captives and the only path to ensuring Hamas’ collapse.
The broader lesson is clear. When Israel appeared eager for a deal, Hamas ran away, exploiting every humanitarian appeal for propaganda. When Israel advanced militarily and signaled that the clock was running out, Hamas reversed course. This is precisely in line with Jewish teaching about honor. If one chases after it, it recedes. If one turns away from it, it follows. The same applies to Hamas. When Israel begged, Hamas hardened. When Israel prepared to take Gaza City by force, Hamas yielded.
The deal now on the table is imperfect, but it underscores an essential truth. Diplomatic pressure alone does not free Israeli hostages. Military pressure does. The same principle was true when Gilad Shalit was exchanged in 2011, and it remains true today. Netanyahu’s critics on the right will continue to roar, and Hamas will continue to manipulate. But Israel’s policy must remain grounded in the hard reality that terrorists only make concessions when they fear annihilation. The events of August 19, 2025, are a case study in that principle, and they should guide Israel’s strategy going forward.
